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Flash Stats - Q2 2021 - Hymans Robertson

Publication

Quarterly market round-up

Flash Stats - Q2 2021

06 Jul 2021

In our regular market round-up, we take a look at what's happened in Q2 2021.

Growth forecasts continue to see upward revisions amid accumulating evidence of effectiveness of vaccines, the deployment of US fiscal stimulus and greater economic resilience to the latest waves of COVID 19. Despite upside inflation surprises, US and UK sovereign bond yields have fallen since the end of March. Equity markets rose over the quarter but the recent fall in yields saw shorter duration sectors and styles underperform.

Some of the headlines in Q2 2021 include:

  • A very sharp rebound in global GDP growth is expected in Q2 as restrictions eased in the major advanced economies. June’s consensus forecasts for global growth in 2021 rose to 5.8%, 0.5% above March’s forecast. Recent improvements in forecasts see output in many economies reaching prepandemic levels by the end of the year, much faster than previously predicted.
  • Despite upside inflation surprises in May, US yields fell. After the Fed forecast rate rises earlier than previously, long-term US yields fell further, and the curve flattened. Over the quarter, US 10-year treasury yields fell 0.3% p.a. to 1.5% p.a. and UK yields fell 0.1% p.a. to 0.7% p.a. The gathering pace of vaccine roll out in the eurozone helped equivalent German yields rise 0.1% p.a.
  • Supply and demand imbalances and a weak base of comparison in 2020 suggest UK headline CPI will increase above May’s 2.1% year-on-year rise. May’s 5.0% year-on-year increase in US headline CPI exceeded expectations. US core CPI also outstripped expectations, rising 3.8%.
  • UK 10-year Implied inflation, as measured by the difference between conventional and inflation-linked bonds of the same maturity, fell from 3.7% p.a. to 3.5% p.a. as nominal yields fell relative to real yields.

To find out more, download our update of all key market trends and statistics now! 

Flash Stats - Q2 2021

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